Sales Forecasting & Campaign Planning Tool for Pharma Marketing

A US pharma company partnered with OSI to develop a forecasting tool that helps marketing plan campaigns and meet annual sales targets amid changing market conditions like patent expiries.
Written by
Vijay Hanagandi
Published on
May 15, 2025

Overview

A large US Pharmaceutical and Consumer Goods company is interested in providing a decision support tool to help its marketing division to optimally manage its marketing campaigns. The company’s marketing arm is tasked with meeting its financial goals (as mandated by corporate, annually). The marketing arm uses its budget to schedule promotional campaigns and lift the sales forecast to meet the annual financial target in the face of changing market conditions (like a patent expiry event). 

OSI was commissioned to design a forecasting tool to give visibility to the company’s sales forecast versus its annual financial commitment. This was intended to aid the team in making decisions with respect to planning promotional events (campaigns) to close the gap between the target and the forecast. 

Business description and background

Marketing divisions in consumer (CPG) and Pharmaceutical industry alike rely on marketing campaigns, promotions, etc. to influence future sales in order to meet financial targets. This is further complicated when the company is faced with competitive pressures that influence its sales – either temporarily (like a competitor doing a promo) or permanently (like an expiring patent). Given a finite marketing budget, it takes an immense amount of planning and scheduling to get to an annual marketing campaign plan that meets the financial goals.  

The Challenge

Visualization of the sales forecast versus the financial target is the first challenge. Upon visually realizing the challenge facing the company, the decision-makers need the tools to do ‘what if’ analyses to schedule different marketing campaigns and assess the resulting conditions. The idea is to provide the  end-user with a user-friendly tool to 

  • Quickly identify the problem & visualize the amount of gap between the annual target and forecast;
  • Study the known competing events affecting the business; 
  • Iteratively design marketing campaigns to counter the negative conditions in the market and meet the company’s annual target. 

The ultimate solution is to take the guess-work out of the work-flow and give a one-button solution where the end-user will be able to get an optimal set of campaigns (i.e., events) and their respective parameters which minimizes the overall cost of all the events and meet the company’s annual sales targets.

The decision variables for the optimization problem (the one-button solution) are event timing, event type, uptake curve profiles, time of persistence of the events, etc. 

The constraints are: total marketing dollars, number of events permitted in a year, etc. 

The objective function is: minimize the marketing dollar amount spent (or minimize the difference between forecasted sales and the financial target committed to corporate).

The Solution

The OSI team implemented the visualization of the sales forecast model first. This model was implemented in Microsoft Excel to give familiar tools, controls, tables, and charts to the end-users. Using this tool, the end-users are able to iteratively schedule the different marketing campaigns and close the gap between the sales forecast and the annual financial target.

The OSI team was also able to formulate the events scheduling problem as an optimization problem and implement a one-click solution. This was done using a high-power mathematical optimization tool. The problem was formulated as a mixed integer programming (MIP) problem. The resulting solution takes the guess work out of the end-users’ workflow.

Key Results & Benefits

Our tool provides the following benefits – 

  1. Accurate forecasting of the effects of marketing campaigns and external events on sales forecast;
  2. Visualize quickly the level of disconnect between the financial target and the sales forecast;
  3. Capability to design effective marketing campaigns to counter competing forces in the marketplace;
  4. Optimize the use of a limited marketing budget in managing a marketing campaign.

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Sales Forecasting & Campaign Planning Tool for Pharma Marketing

Vijay Hanagandi
May 16, 2025
2 minutes

Overview

A large US Pharmaceutical and Consumer Goods company is interested in providing a decision support tool to help its marketing division to optimally manage its marketing campaigns. The company’s marketing arm is tasked with meeting its financial goals (as mandated by corporate, annually). The marketing arm uses its budget to schedule promotional campaigns and lift the sales forecast to meet the annual financial target in the face of changing market conditions (like a patent expiry event). 

OSI was commissioned to design a forecasting tool to give visibility to the company’s sales forecast versus its annual financial commitment. This was intended to aid the team in making decisions with respect to planning promotional events (campaigns) to close the gap between the target and the forecast. 

Business description and background

Marketing divisions in consumer (CPG) and Pharmaceutical industry alike rely on marketing campaigns, promotions, etc. to influence future sales in order to meet financial targets. This is further complicated when the company is faced with competitive pressures that influence its sales – either temporarily (like a competitor doing a promo) or permanently (like an expiring patent). Given a finite marketing budget, it takes an immense amount of planning and scheduling to get to an annual marketing campaign plan that meets the financial goals.  

The Challenge

Visualization of the sales forecast versus the financial target is the first challenge. Upon visually realizing the challenge facing the company, the decision-makers need the tools to do ‘what if’ analyses to schedule different marketing campaigns and assess the resulting conditions. The idea is to provide the  end-user with a user-friendly tool to 

  • Quickly identify the problem & visualize the amount of gap between the annual target and forecast;
  • Study the known competing events affecting the business; 
  • Iteratively design marketing campaigns to counter the negative conditions in the market and meet the company’s annual target. 

The ultimate solution is to take the guess-work out of the work-flow and give a one-button solution where the end-user will be able to get an optimal set of campaigns (i.e., events) and their respective parameters which minimizes the overall cost of all the events and meet the company’s annual sales targets.

The decision variables for the optimization problem (the one-button solution) are event timing, event type, uptake curve profiles, time of persistence of the events, etc. 

The constraints are: total marketing dollars, number of events permitted in a year, etc. 

The objective function is: minimize the marketing dollar amount spent (or minimize the difference between forecasted sales and the financial target committed to corporate).

The Solution

The OSI team implemented the visualization of the sales forecast model first. This model was implemented in Microsoft Excel to give familiar tools, controls, tables, and charts to the end-users. Using this tool, the end-users are able to iteratively schedule the different marketing campaigns and close the gap between the sales forecast and the annual financial target.

The OSI team was also able to formulate the events scheduling problem as an optimization problem and implement a one-click solution. This was done using a high-power mathematical optimization tool. The problem was formulated as a mixed integer programming (MIP) problem. The resulting solution takes the guess work out of the end-users’ workflow.

Key Results & Benefits

Our tool provides the following benefits – 

  1. Accurate forecasting of the effects of marketing campaigns and external events on sales forecast;
  2. Visualize quickly the level of disconnect between the financial target and the sales forecast;
  3. Capability to design effective marketing campaigns to counter competing forces in the marketplace;
  4. Optimize the use of a limited marketing budget in managing a marketing campaign.

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Pharmaceuticals
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Vijay Hanagandi
May 16, 2025
2 minutes